New report plots way to zero carbon Britain

Tobi Kellner, Zero Carbon Britain's energy modeller, said: "A lot of people say it can't be done but, actually, we looked into it, we did the research very thoroughly, and we say it is possible".

Leading environmental charity, the Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT), has released an update of its Zero Carbon Britain scenario called Rethinking the Future, in which it attempts to show that it's possible for the UK to decarbonise rapidly using the current level of technological development.

The Zero Carbon Britain modelling suggests that the variability of solar and wind energy sources can be accommodated by using carbon-neutral synthetic gas as a back-up, but achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions requires a shift in the nation's diet and transport habits.

The researchers claim that this will also be healthier and enhance biodiversity while cutting emissions from land use and agriculture, and that these proposed changes will generate over a million new jobs.

Speaking at the launch during the final sitting of the All Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group this morning, its chair, Joan Walley, said: “by setting out what a low carbon world would look like this report shows that the solutions to our problems do exist and all that is needed is the political will to implement them”.

Paul Allen, Project Co-ordinator, added that: “The fact that we can demonstrate that rapid decarbonisation is possible with current technology, and without significant lifestyle changes, should be a major call to action”.

Zero Carbon Britain: Rethinking the Future synthesises cutting-edge research across multiple disciplines to map a comprehensive and technically realistic scenario for the UK.

The model suggests a 60% cut in energy demand is feasible, with over half of the remaining annual energy supplied from the wind; the rest is produced from a suite of renewable resources suitable for the UK, including liquid fuels derived from biomass grown in the UK.

UK hourly weather data from the last ten years (87,648 hours) was used to model electricity demand and renewable energy supplies. Even though both demand and supply are highly variable, over the ten years modelled, electricity demand is satisfied directly over 80% of the time.

The rest of the time, back-up generation can be provided using surplus electricity and biomass from UK grown second-generation energy crops to produce carbon neutral synthetic gas, which can then be burned as and when necessary in gas power stations. The flexibility of this back-up generation is considered to be important, since making baseload power available only leads to a costly overproduction of energy at times when demand is already met.

In the modelling, this back-up provides only 3% of the total annual electricity required by the UK, but is crucial to ‘keep the lights on’ at all times.

On agriculture and diet, the report finds that "By reducing the amount and altering the balance of foods we eat to be in line with UK government health recommendations (fewer foods high in saturated fats, sugar, and salt (HFSS foods), and decreasing meat and dairy consumption, and by reducing food waste, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture can be cut by almost 75%", reducing the amount of agricultural land required.

Alice Hooker-Stroud, Research Co-ordinator, said: "The fact that a healthy diet is also lower in greenhouse gas emissions, and uses less land is a win-win-win situation that should be supported throughout society".

Paul Allen, also director of the Centre for Alternative Technology, told me that current energy policy doesn't account for the external costs of burning fossil fuels.

"We must also bear in mind that 'business as usual' has not calculated the cost of taking [World average temperatures] above 2 degrees [the value agreed by 200 nations at climate change talks to be dangerous]. The adaptation costs would be very high indeed, also we would have to deal with higher global temperatures under conditions of post peak oil prices," he said.

When asked whether the proposed developments had been costed out, he said this would be the subject of the next round of research, using data generated by the New Economics Foundation. "But as an approximation, we are confident that if fossil fuel energy embraces all the costs currently externalised by the market systems, and if we include the economies of scale, ZCB will prove an effective investment, especially as, once the systems are in place, the energy supply costs are not volatile like oil and gas."

He continued: "A lot of Britain's energy infrastructure is coming to the end of its design life. We need to replace it and we do not want to lock ourselves into the wrong energy path. Now is the time to have that critical debate about what are our energy sources and the means of using energy that we will need for the 21st Century."

Regarding the modelling used, he added that "The purpose of this iteration has really been to answer the question "what happens if the UK is becalmed at minus 17 degrees under peak load" So we have vastly increased the detail in the energy model to be able to answer this question fully. We have used 10 years of hourly real meteorological data to model shits in demand and we have scaled up real output from offshore wind farms, again driven by the same data."

Picture from Zero Carbon Britain

Cameron urged to put green economy at heart of plan for growth

Joan Walley, Chair of the MPs' Environmental Audit Committee, has called on the Prime Minister to show leadership in the run up to the Rio Earth Summit and put the green economy at the heart of the Government's plans to revive the economy.

"Out of the ashes of the financial crisis we need to rebuild an economy that enhances human well-being, protects the natural world and delivers food and energy security for the future," she said, as she launched a new report on the green economy by the Committee of cross-party MPs.

The MPs want green investment to play a key part in the economic recovery, but they feel that the Treasury still regards environmental measures as a cost not a benefit to the economy. Expenditure involved in making the transition to a green economy should be seen as an investment in a positive future, they argue.

The report criticises the existing strategy, 'Enabling the Transition to a Green Economy', for being too focused on voluntary action and failing to set a clear trajectory or any time-bound milestones for businesses to achieve.

Investing in renewable sources of energy would increase our energy security by reducing our reliance on imported fossil fuels and create jobs, it concludes.

What is needed is a green economy strategy, the report says, which is Treasury-led and addresses the economy as a whole, and it calls on the Treasury to publish its definition of an environmental tax. This would enable it to measure whether the Government is meeting its commitment to increase the proportion of environmental taxes.

Mandatory emissions reporting

Defra is also criticised for delaying the introduction of mandatory emissions reporting for big business, and the MPs hope this doesn't mean it will never be introduced.

"Making businesses report their carbon emissions is one of the first steps we need to take on the road to a green economy, so it will be a key test of this Government's green credentials," they say.

"The Government promised a roadmap to a green economy, but two years in it seems to have stalled and we risk slipping back to business-as-usual," added Ms. Walley.

"Rising global demand for commodities and fossil fuels mean that prices will continue to rise in future, so it is incredibly short-sighted of the Treasury not to give businesses clear incentives to use resources in a smarter way."

Defra did, in March, publish its Resource Security Action Plan: making the most of valuable materials, which sets out the risks and opportunities for businesses stemming from our reliance on the specialty metals and minerals used in technology, but it lacks specific targets and financial support to business.

The Government's roadmap to the green economy also lacks long-term vision, the MPs say, warning that the recent financial crisis has shown how great are the risks of relying solely on a market-led approach, particularly when the market value of services provided by nature, such as clean water and crop pollination, are not valued on corporate balance sheets.

Red tape is often a green safeguard

Furthermore, Government plans to 'rationalise' environmental regulations must not be a smokescreen for relaxing rules protecting our health, countryside or wildlife in a short-term pursuit of growth, the report also warns.

The Government has pledged to reduce over 10,000 pages of regulatory guidance, following its 'Red Tape Challenge', to help businesses comply with environmental laws. But the MPs point out they have an important role in safeguarding our health and the environment.

Joan Walley said: "The Treasury seems to see environmental regulations as nothing more than costly red-tape, but what we are talking about here are vital laws to give us clean air, safe food, and a thriving countryside.

"If this process reduces bureaucracy and improves outcomes," she says, “we will support it. But it would be irresponsible to get rid of sensible regulations in a desperate dash for growth."

She said they will be keeping a careful eye on Ministers to make sure that rules are not relaxed unnecessarily.

The MPs therefore urge the Government to:

• develop minimum sustainability standards
• set out how data on natural capital in the National Accounts will be used
• develop targets for improving the state of the environment
• establish transparent reporting by business
• use the Natural Capital Committee's work on a 'natural asset stock check' as an indicator to measure the green economy.

Simultaneously, they call for a new definition of the green economy that includes all three interdependent pillars of sustainable development, including the social aspects, well-being and environmental limits.

It also says the Government should set out how it intends to use its procurement expenditure to develop markets for green goods and services, and what specific changes it intends to make to meet the requirements of the Public Services (Social Value) Act.